Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Decoding LTCM

Jimmy Rogers likes to tell the story of how
the people at LTCM called Alan Greenspan back in 1998,
when they were at the brink of collapse, and said :
"Save me, save me, save me".
And Alan saved them.

Now, it's a nice story, but history ain't that simple.

For one, saving LTCM was more William McDonough's idea than
Greenspan. McDonough was the President of the New York Fed,
and it was he who genuinely believed that there wld be this
huge systemic fallout which wld ruin the American economy blah blah blah.

Anyway, the Fed didn't technically save them. As Alan writes :
"No taxpayer money was spent, except perhaps for some
sandwiches and coffee". It was the big banks - themselves creditors
of LTCM - which finally agreed to pool $$$ to refloat the fund.

Nonetheless, even tho the facts are off, the basic gist is spot on.
The Fed created a put for LTCM, in essence, it told J. M. and his cronies
that "you're too big too fail. We will NOT let you fail."
That changed everything.
It created a moral hazard. It emboldened John Meriwether to say
"no" to the Berkshire offer.

Now the impression I get is that Buffett and JM were all along
reluctant to deal with one another.

Buffett may have thought tt the Salomon episode was terrible enuff.
In any case, it brought back bad memories - so there's this
subconscious negative association with JM.
JM, on the other hand, understandly did not want to sell out to Buffett
once again.

It seems to me then that both were making it hard for one another.
Buffett on his part rejected offers to invest again and again.
His policy was always no JM.
His whole being on the Alaskan trip and hard to contact thing was,
I suspect, more an excuse than anything else?
At any time, he cld have cancelled the trip.
Or chosen to stay in a more developed area
and simply not move along with rest.
Esp the part abt his satellite phone not working
cause he was behind some rock crap?

JM, on his part, knew wad Buffett wanted.
And was not gonna give it to him.
The part abt having to consult his lawyers blah blah
and not negotiating because the offered expired...

Come on guys. If you all were serious in dealing with
one another, it cld hav all been easily arranged.
In this end JM got the better offer from the banks
and WB walked off with nth.
Thus a market sln fell thru.

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