Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Chinese Bubbles

We've all heard so much of bubbles these days.
From the US, we've had the Dot.Com bubble, and more recently,
the sub-prime bubble.
Back in Europe, there's the famous South-Sea bubble (where Issac Newton
lost money) and the Tulip bubble in the Netherlands.

Now in China, 2009, we have bubbles in real time.
First, there's the Chinese Tea bubble.
No joke. It's the Pu'Er you get to drink when you go to Chinese restaurants.
From 1999 to 2007, the price of a pound of Pu'Er Cha rose more than 10x
to $150. These days, some desperate sellers may only get $5.
Pu'Er speculators who once used their $$ to buy cars find that they can no longer
afford the $$ to buy the petrol. Sad.

But there is another bigger bubble which has yet to burst.
It's the Chinese Condo bubble.
For years now, there have been too many
luxury condos and too few people actually staying in them.
These ghost-condos are found all over the country in every big city.
Their owners just buy them and keep them as investment - in the same
way ppl buy gold or silver.
The worrying thing is that the prices are still going up, people are still buying,
builders are still building.

As point out in a FEER article :
"A useless asset like gold or vacant apartments can only serve
as a store of value so long as people have collective confidence it will continue to perform that function and thus retain its value. China’s property market may well crash."

I wonder what's gonna happen the day it does.

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